BY: Pooya Mirzaei
PEJOURNAL – The U.S. has suffered irreparable damage with the Corona crisis and its unscientific and hasty actions so world order’s architects have main concern about aftermath of the U.S. election.
Demonstrations against racism, the gender of which lacks political and trade union transparency and shows more of a deep social divide, will intensify in the future, and again, under the pressure of white apartheid in the United States, to bring more violence and unbridled violence with this logic again. It will show that the American social system has not structurally considered the welfare of people of color regardless of cultural discrimination and racial prejudice.
The inefficiency of the White House in finding a solution to the current situation has accelerated the decline of the United States and has faced the Trump administration with dual political and social crises, especially in controlling the corona and managing domestic and foreign policies, and finding work for the winning candidate in the 2020 election. The solution to the current and future challenges has made it very difficult.
A foreign policy without a US strategy that merely rejects international treaties and institutions and unintentionally undermines the world order without a specific agenda, seizes the opportunity to exert power in foreign policy, and internally marginalizes American values and a state It has gone bankrupt and unplanned, making it the worst experience in contemporary American history.
On the other hand, the uncoordinated international and nationalist actions of countries in controlling the corona, the continuing recession of the global economy, the interruption in the production and distribution of strategic and consumer goods, the revival of nationalist policies and the subsequent distrust of countries in international cooperation, has also confused and doubled America’s self-made problems.
The United States is currently in a situation where many countries do not care who wins the November election, but how long the decline of the United States will continue with Trump or Biden.
Countries competing with the United States are largely waiting for the consequences of the US political and social divide in this election, which could be exacerbated by Trump’s victory, the continuation of the Corona crisis, anti-racist demonstrations and, ultimately, global resistance.
Perhaps from now on, the US foreign policy approach will be more important to China, Russia, and European countries such as Germany, France, and Britain than whoever becomes US president, because both Trump’s continuation and the Democrats’ contractionary policies in global interactions based on international treaties and institutions is negligible.
Under such circumstances, any country would logically move to more powerful countries and more secure markets to protect its interests and survival in the international community due to its rejection of US nationalist or contractionary policies, which would certainly change the current structure of the world.
The point is that; Regardless of the outcome of the election, it will not be easy for the US political system to return to international relations before the 2016 election.
For the United States’ European allies, the tensions caused by the Trump administration’s recklessness in foreign and security policy will not be resolved even with Trump’s defeat in the presidential election, and it will be more difficult for them to return to the transatlantic relationship. In contrast, it is much easier to regulate their relations with other major world powers such as China and Russia.
To describe precisely; Another important question and concern of other actors in the existing order is that even if Biden assumes victory, the US political, economic and security approach to international relations will not change significantly due to recent nationalist developments in the United States. Again, what will happen if the US government distances itself from cooperation based on international definitions and rules influenced by multilateralism?
It is clear that in such circumstances, the structure of US domestic and foreign policy will be subject to serious changes by both Republicans and Democrats, and global competition or confrontation with US policies will take on a new form, while countries will adapt to US behavior and performance. Global and bilateral relations will define and formulate a strategy for their relationship with Washington.
This means that European countries, which have been a strategic ally of the United States in NATO and transatlantic relations for more than half a century and have spent years to bring about the collapse of the Soviet Union and communist regimes like China, should now look at Moscow and Beijing as an accepted strategic partner and change their political and security lifestyle according to criteria based on Russian-Chinese rules.
In this kind of circumstances; These countries must formulate new definitions and rules for Western values based on liberal democracy within the framework of national solutions in line with Russian and Chinese values!
On the other hand; If US introversion persists after the 2020 election and the EU fails to enjoy the economic and security benefits of its relationship with the United States, the new US administration must challenge itself to Europe and prepare the countries of the world for a new world order.
The point is that; The Trump administration is laying the groundwork for the White House contractor’s think tanks, such as the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), etc., with aggressive and unilateral strategies that, even if Joe Biden wins, are still unclear.
This is the first time in contemporary history that the decline of a great power like the United States, fueled by its president, could cause such problems for the United States and the rest of the world, despite strategic economic or security ties, that off its axis and impose a long-term economic recession on the countries of the world.
The logic of this proposition is also quite clear, that, along with the decline of American hegemony and the consequent breakdown of the existing world order, nationalism and ideological extremism will pervade the world and international treaties and institutions resulted from the two world wars as the main pillars. It will destroy the existing order and establish an endless arms race that may leads to mass killings.
According to this; The main actors in the existing order expect the winning candidate in the 2020 elections to return to the liberal values and order derived from the ideas of Liberal Democracy that have guaranteed them years of world domination.