BY: Pooya Mirzaei
PEJOURNAL – The order of events in Middle East, North Africa and West of Asia from the beginning of the 2020, was so rapid that when we think about the geopolitical arrangement of the region in last year, it seems that we are looking deep in history. After the assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani and his friend, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, military and security arrangement of all fronts in Middle East has changed into a new order.
Riots in Iraq and Lebanon as the main regional allies of Iran, new government in Iraq, Beirut suspicious blast, death of Oman King, protests and dissatisfactions in Israel, Turkey’s rivalry escalation more west ward in East of Mediterranean, Iran’s strategic alliance with China and Russia and finally normalization of relations between Arabian Emires around Persian Gulf, with Zionist regime, all are speaking to us about a new order in west of Asia that stands between Iran from one side and Saudi-Israeli from the other side.
Yes, Saudi-Israeli. This new alliance is very important to be considered in future of Middle East, in a future that western and foreign forces may have decreased their presence in Middle East, Oil may have lost its importance for global economy and development, and worldwide pandemics may have changed the face of any interaction between human kind. In this future, regional superpowers may seek new areas for rivalry that stabile security, food security, threats due to lack of water resources, climate change and its effect on the way that human uses energy, would be the main issues of upstream policy making and strategic decisions.
Based on this point of view, Arabs and Zionists are trying to add their small scale powers to each other to be able to confront the main grand superpower of region: Iran.
From the other side of this front, Iran’s recent military drills and war games, together with its victories in international diplomatic arenas shows its upper hand in the region that have frustrated Saudi-Israeli line to take rapid actions. The last of these actions can be considered as UAE-Israel’s so called Abraham Accord and same agreement between Bahrain (that was one of Iran’s provinces till half a century ago) and Israel.
Although the USA power decline in the region and blind attempts of France in Middle East can be seen as one of the reasons of such agreements and accords, but according to geostrategic and geopolitics point of view, ongoing frustration of small sized Arab countries and Israel definitely have lead them to take such actions that more investigations shows their inadequate rational and logical decisions toward such agreements.
This geopolitically small countries that used to be dependent on the security that they have gained through military presence of the United States, found themselves in a situation that their military power may not be adequate for confronting Iran and axes of resistance. Although France, despite of its dream and activities cannot be able to secure them in the region.
But beyond all of the above, there is another very important issue at the heart of these agreements, which may have important implications for such agreements and become apparent in the med term future, exacerbating tensions in the region for a long time.
Iranian peoples who have lived in and in some long periods of time ruled the west of Asia, are very dependent on their Iranian-Islamic identity and history shows that they have done a lot to keep this flag upper than every other lands in this region. Arabic-Israeli agreements may have a racial point of view inside their heart that can act as a mine inside this agreements. This point of view, if duplicates with Iranian view of resistance in Middle East, it may cause the biggest collapse ever for both Arab countries, and Zionist regime in this region.
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