BY: Pooya Mirzaei
PEJOURNAL – In the run-up to the US presidential election, some think that if Joe Biden wins, sanctions will be lifted and the dollar will fall, but if Trump stays in the White House, conditions will escalate, makes it much harder for Iran.
Reviewing the background and positions of these two shows that neither Biden’s election works wonders nor Trump has power to go over what he has done so far.
Biden’s stance on Iran, as explicitly published in his special note to the world a few weeks ago in CNN, shows a much smarter approach to Washington’s grand strategy against the Iranian people, and basically seeks to exploit the path that Trump has taken and the costs has been paid, not to go back the whole way.
Biden is pushing for a return to the UN Security Council, which, contrary to the Democrats’ commitment to a deal with Iran, sets new preconditions and demands new concessions, as Trump was willing to return to the UN Security Council on condition that he get the concessions he wanted.
To describe precisely; Trump’s philosophy of “maximum pressure” is what Biden is pursuing in “smart pressure” and that is to submit Iran to renegotiation and give more concessions (retreat from national interests) with the difference that Trump’s unilateral behavior could not strengthens the power of consensus building against Iran but the Democrats’ record shows that they have that power.
On the other hand; Biden, as director of the Obama administration’s West Asia Disintegration project, has a particular view of Iran’s effective role in the region’s equations, which is why the Biden-Hillary team in the first Obama administration established ISIS to advance the disintegration project and destroy Iran’s strategy which is seeking regional stability and strengthening resistance.
Biden is on the verge of entering the White House today as Trump pays for the physical removal of a major obstacle for U.S., General Soleimani, and ostensibly paves the way for Biden’s dream of disintegrating the region. Although he and his team are sending pulses to Iran showing readiness to start new negotiations, but they are certainly not willing to give any special concessions to Iran, only want to reap what Trump has sown.
Of course, it should be noted that if the presence of the Biden-Harris team in the White House is confirmed, there is a long list of priorities in front of them that Iran may not be in the first few pages at the moment; These include addressing the harmful economic and social consequences of Corona, managing anti-racist protests at home, repairing ties with European allies, regulating and restraining relations with China and Russia, returning to international treaties, and strengthening a multilateralist approach to accompanying other global actors.
The very low probability of Trump staying in power will not change anything compared to the current situation, because his current team in the White House has reached a point where there is no room for more pressure or sanctions on Iran. This is the point that Obama reached before beginning the nuclear negotiations with Iran in 2013.
Given these circumstances, it is important to note that solving the Iran’s problems, rather than focusing on the composition and performance of the new White House tenants, requires strong domestic will and reliance on existing capabilities that can protect the country against any scenario from the enemy.