Will Russia-US relations improve?

BY: Danieal Ranjbar

PEJOURNAL – Although the Kremlin has stated that Russia will establish relations with any government in the United States on an equal and fair basis, analysts believe that the future of relations between Moscow and Washington will improve due to the great differences between the two Sides.

Regardless of who becomes president of the White House, differences between the United States and Russia have grown so much in recent years that there is little hope that relations between the two countries will improve, as Russian President Vladimir Putin says about bilateral relations. “Relations between Moscow and Washington have deteriorated so much that nothing could be worse.”

Although Russian officials have repeatedly stressed their interest in establishing constructive relations with the US presidential candidate since last month, in recent months US President-elect Joe Biden has stated that Russia is interfering in the US elections. If successful, Moscow will respond appropriately. Moscow, as a last country, congratulated the winner of the 2020 Election & wished for more and better cooperation with the upcoming administration in the US.

Washington’s hostility to Moscow has reached a point where the United States recently announced that it would impose sanctions on a number of companies in Russia’s federal government.

The draft version of the sanctions states that 28 Russian organizations in the fields of aviation, missile and space industries, instrument and engine manufacturing, and research centers will be targeted by US sanctions. The sanctions name two important Russian entities, the Russian Atom and the Russian Federal Space Agency. Earlier, on November 24, the United States imposed sanctions on three Russian organizations, Nilco Group, Aviazapchast, and Alkon.

 Russian President Vladimir Putin, by establishing various relations with countries in the region, helping to save the falling regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and acting on General Khalifa Haftar in war-torn Libya, has increased Russian influence in reviving the Middle East. But this created many obstacles for Russia, one of the most important of which was the further efforts of its rival, the United States, and its opposition to some of Russia’s actions. Now that the Biden government is in office, things may look a little different.

Joe Biden’s approach to Moscow is much more consistent than Donald Trump’s because it is part of a larger strategy to regain US global influence. Biden, on the other hand, intends to rebuild its broken relationship with the European Union and is determined to put pressure on powerful figures like Putin in various ways. “Unlike Trump, I will defend my democratic values ​​and stand up to tyrants like Putin,” Biden tweeted in August.

Given the clever and wise actions of both sides, many experts and politicians say that one of the most important consequences of Biden’s coming to power in the 2020 US election is the impact on Moscow-Washington relations, which seems very reasonable considering two possibilities.

Some believe that Biden’s opposition to Russia’s policies will increase tensions and the possibility of new sanctions against Moscow. Turning to the problems and differences of opinion on factors such as the annexation of Crimea, the claim of meddling in the 2016 US elections and the like will perpetuate the mutual distrust between the US and Russia. On the other hand, with the final victory of Joe Biden in the recent US elections, relations with European countries will enter a new phase, which will certainly affect relations with Moscow, and its negative side will probably be more for Moscow.

 The second possibility is to indicate the interests of the parties in the case of some regional and global cooperation, which seems a little more reasonable. If we consider the second possibility, it is undoubtedly not a full-fledged friendship, but in some dimensions, differences of opinion and opposition will remain strong, and in some other dimensions, cooperation and close tendencies will prevail. There will be significant differences between the Biden administration’s approach to Russia and the Trump administration’s approach.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the current state of relations with the United States as so bad that he said he did not expect much from relations with Washington. Although he says that the Russian side is ready to establish constructive relations with the winner of the presidential election in the United States, regardless of party affiliation, he believes that given the current situation, we do not expect good relations, but we must wait and see the future. Evaluate realistically based on circumstances.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also expressed frustration with the outlook for Moscow-Washington relations, saying the US government’s actions in recent years had been unpredictable.

As high-ranking Russian officials believe, US-Russian relations have deteriorated more than ever under Trump. This confrontation will deepen.

 Dmitry Ternin, a professor of political science and director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, is one of the analysts who sees Russia’s biggest problem in Biden’s time as the challenge to the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Missile Nuclear Force Treaty (INF).

Of course, analysts believe that there will be new opportunities for Russia-US relations in the Biden era. Biden’s interest in arms control may be one of the opportunities that will allow the two sides to have a peaceful dialogue.

In conclusion, it seems that some of the needs of the parties will lead to the complementarity of some strategies of interaction while maintaining reciprocity, for their benefit, but this should not be considered as a settlement of all disputes and very friendly relations, but to create There is a reasonable relationship between the parties to the extent that their interests are secured in such a way that in some cases the relationship is resumed and in some cases the challenges remain strong.

But whatever happens in Russia-US relations as a result of the change from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, one thing will remain the same:

Russia will continue to pursue its goals under Vladimir Putin, as Putin oversees changes to Russia’s constitution that Allowing him to extend his rule until 2036, he could remain in power for a long time after Biden’s two terms in office, and as long as he is in power, Putin is unlikely to Deviate from its long-standing pattern of seeing the United States as Russia’s main enemy. Biden cannot change that, as Trump and previous presidents have failed. The best thing that can be predicted is to cooperate with Moscow in cases where there are mutual interests and it can progress.

Mark N. Katz (2020) .Russian-American Relations: From Trump to Biden.

Maryam Khaleghinejad, PhD in Political Science, Her Last Article in http://irdiplomacy.ir/